Before I begin this week's blog, thoughts and prayers for the safety of the people in Los Angeles...
I’ve been selling real estate full time since 2004, through lots of ups and one brutal extended down period in the market. We are into the second week in January and although it’s early and there isn’t much inventory my advice to perspective home buyers in 2025 is carpe diem. I met plenty of tire kickers at open houses through the holidays who are wanna be buyers, but they are having a hard time getting off the fence. I’ve seen this behavior before. Many of those buyers are going to jump off the fence with everyone else in the spring, only to get bruised and battered and possibly priced out of the market.
Last spring an estimated 40% of home buyers in Marin County had all cash. The majority of homes I sold last year were to all cash buyers. All things being equal, an all cash offer will always beat out an offer that needs a loan. Losing out to all cash buyers is discouraging, so if I were a buyer in the market right now, and I needed to get a loan, I’d pull the trigger on a decent house as soon as possible. Otherwise, I’d be grappling against a larger crop of all cash buyers in the spring.
The biggest challenge I see with fresh home buyers is that they start out too narrow minded. It takes them a while to compromise on their wants and lean into their needs. When they finally step up to the plate and write an offer, like soon to be Hall of Famer Ichiro they hit singles instead of swinging for the fences. An asking priced offer is fine in the absence of competition, but when there are more players in the game it’s easy to get left in the dust. Like the Highlander said, “There can be only one.”
Most economists still are only pretending what to expect in 2025. I expect spring to be good for sellers in Marin County in part because interest rates won’t be out of control. I don’t think there is going to be an explosion of inventory either, so prices will stay elevated and they may even increase. Let’s face it, there’s not a lot of turnover in the Marin market. People like living here, and most homeowners have excellent mortgage interest rates, or they’ve paid off their homes and have no debt and low property taxes. It makes relocating cost prohibitive. This is an outstanding place to live and we are all fortunate to be here, so why sell and leave unless it’s necessary?
In a way, being a home buyer is a lot like a modified game of musical chairs. You circle around one house until the music stops and it’s time to write offers. One person gets the home, everyone else moves on to circle the next house. You pull up that chair to the table of Marin County real estate, and you’ve got a real opportunity to create generational wealth. They aren’t making any more land, and it’s only getting more and more pricey to take a seat at that coveted table.
*** Thank you for reading my blog! If you or any of your friends and family ever have any real estate questions, please feel free to contact me at andyfalk2112@yahoo.com or 415-250-8025. I’m always happy to help!