This weekend we unofficially turn the corner on spring and find ourselves ready to bask in the summertime sunshine. While the calendar says June 20th is the start of summer this year, our real estate market already feels a little summery with graduations and upcoming vacations. June still should be a strong month in 2024 because home buyers have come to accept our higher interest rates, and well-priced and presented properties are always hot in Marin County.
As of May 24th, the mortgage interest rate was 7.04%. The rate has been in 20 year high territory for a while now, up sharply from the lows of 2021. While we all wished for lower rates at the start of 2024, inflation rained on that parade. There’s talk of lower rates later this year, and hopefully that will happen but if you are a home buyer and you find the right home that you can afford in this market, I wouldn’t bank on finding a similar home in 6-12 months at the same price with any less competition.
The fact is, as rates go down, we will likely see more home buyers in the market and as a result prices increasing. Pick your poison, higher mortgage rates now or higher prices and more competition later? You can always refinance a mortgage you get today if/when the rates go down. If you don’t buy that house today, will it be the ‘one that got away’. That house that would have been perfect, but you settled for less later on. Or could you get completely priced out of a neighborhood you had your eye on? That’s not an unusual fate for the unwitting who wait in Marin.
Perhaps you are a homebuyer expecting prices to come down. It can happen. Prices don’t always go up, but they do always come back. It’s just a matter of time. In my experience single family homes seem to regain values quicker than condos and townhouses. Theoretically we could see things slow down a little bit in the second half of the year. We might not see as many properties or buyers. Since multiple offer situations are still happening out there, it does not seem like a slowdown is not imminent. If interest rates really do drop back 6% by the end of the year, conditions are going to get more competitive between buyers, which is great news for sellers.
As long as interest rates don’t start going in the wrong direction again, summer and fall should be good seasons in 2024 for astute buyers and sellers.