I’m blown away. Ever since the first Shelter in Place (SIP) was lifted in late spring the pedal has been glued to the metal in the Marin real estate market. It didn’t slow down in July and August, typically the dogs days not only in the baseball season but on our real estate calendar. I had SEVEN sales in those two months alone, nearly $7.5 million in sales! Looking back on it, some of that can definitely be attributed to pent up SIP demand. We fully came back online in mid-May so that makes sense. How do we explain the continued onslaught of demand throughout the year?
There simply hasn’t been enough inventory to satisfy the demand. Why has there been so much demand? Historically low interest rates, in mid-December down to 2.625% on a 30 year fixed rate mortgage with no points have a lot to do with it. Enabled by these low interest rates there has been a lot of movement out of San Francisco into the suburbs. Things should slow down for the holidays though right?
Depending on how you look at it the holidays are always one of the best and worst times of year to sell. You’ve got the lowest inventory levels as people take their homes off the market, wait until the New Year or even decide to hold off until the spring. However, you’ve typically got the lowest demand as people are traveling to see families and they’ve got their attention on holiday gatherings and festivities. COVID has taken its toll on so much of our society, including our ability to celebrate this special time of year with one another. So people are still out there looking for houses: even with a new SIP in place. Real estate is an essential business.
I put 404 Nova Albion Way in Terra Linda on the market on November 1 for $1,100,000. We received 4 offers and closed $100,000 over our asking price on December 2. That happened pretty much right when things were supposed to be slowing down. It was a nice place with a lot of potential that I’m expecting to come back on the market next year after a full renovation.
This week I put 564 Montecillo Road in Terra Linda on the market. I’m writing this blog on Saturday December 19, and this week I’ve scheduled nearly 30 showings. 30 SHOWINGS! That’s more showings than any house I’ve sold this year. We’ll be looking at offers two days before Christmas. Usually I say, ‘offers if any’, but I’m pretty sure we’ll get more than one.
The important question is what does this mean for the real estate market in 2021? Look for a VERY STRONG winter and spring. With the vaccine I think by summer we should see a more normal real estate pattern again because life will hopefully be approaching more normalcy. But if the rates stay under 3% the peddle may not come off the metal at all in 2021.