This week we got a market update for 2023, which I didn’t find totally surprising. The average sales and median prices in San Rafael were down 3% and 5% respectively in 2023 compared to 2022, and down throughout Marin County. Interest rates shot up last year, so the market taking a hit was expected. It could have been a lot worse too, but the sale volume number was down 25%. Lower inventories kept prices elevated.
The same low inventory conditions should persist in 2024, and I’m expecting to see gains throughout Marin the year as a result. The California Association of Realtors is expecting prices to increase 6.2% in the state. They are also expecting sales volume to increase nearly 23%, however I have no idea how that will be achieved. There just doesn’t seem to be a lot of movement in the market. People have low mortgages and they are understandably reluctant to let them go. I think it’s going to take years before we get to more normal market volume, and in the meantime prices should only increase.
After a quiet holiday season my phone has started to ring again. That’s a good sign for the market as a whole, and me personally. In October I will have my 20th year anniversary selling real estate, which says something. The odds of a Realtor staying in the business this long are extremely low, which means I must be doing something right. I can honestly say that I expected and planned real estate sales to be the last full time position in my career. As long as I’ve still got my health, knock on wood, I want to keep selling real estate for at least another 11 years, and possibly longer.
Over the years I’ve been reluctant to take vacations. There’s always been FOMO, fear of missing out. I want to be in town when a perspective client calls and asks to meet. This year I’m going to Cabo for eight days in February! My last significant vacation was two years ago. Before that might have been six. I don’t regret not taking regular vacations, aside from the occasional weekend getaways (and a few trips to LA) throughout the years, but I’m going to start trying to get away every February for at least a week moving forward. There’s no better way to reset and refresh.
February, up through Ski Week, is a good month to get out of town because it’s cold and rainy and not much is going on. After Ski Week things generally start to pick up. March through July is the best season for selling houses. I’m really looking forward to this spring because I think the market is going to be great for sellers.
One last thought, which is common knowledge among Realtors. As soon as get out of town new clients come forward. It never fails. Which means I really should be taking more vacations.
*** The stats in the photo above were taken from BAREIS MLS. The information is deemed reliable but not guaranteed and is subject to change.