This week I posed the what’s happening in Marin real estate question to Google, and it’s AI Overview made the following interesting points:
1) The median home price in Marin County increased by 6% in Q2 of 2024 hitting $1.8 million, which is the third highest quarter on record. While it feels like the market picked up in the spring and early summer months this year, I was a little surprised to see by how much. I don’t think the market kept this torrid pace in Q3 even though interest rates declined significantly this year. In September it seemed like inventory was accumulating (which is normal after Labor Day) and buyers were in a much better position than earlier in the year with more to choose from and the lowest interest rates all year.
2) Home sales increased by 22% in Q2. AI pointed out that this was because we had more inventory, but it neglected to point out why. The law of supply says that at higher prices more people will be more willing and able to sell their homes. So that checks out seeing as the median price has increased so much.
3) New listings increased by 85% in Q2. See the law of supply above.
4) Average days on the market was 37. This represents from the time a property becomes active to the time it goes pending. This stat is misleading on the high side because most properties however go from ‘active’ to ‘contingent’, not straight to ‘pending’. They have contingencies in the contracts, and being contingent still keeps the days on the market meter running, even though very few buyers ever look at properties when they are contingent. Once all contingencies are released, they become ‘pending’. Contingencies generally range from as little as 7 days to as much as 21 days. In our multiple offer market, tight contingency time frames can be the difference in getting an offer accepted and moving on to the next house.
5) Number of homes sold in August of 2024 was 165, which is down from 188 in 2023. This checks out because of the law of demand, at higher prices fewer people will be willing and able to purchase homes.
These numbers are all very interesting, but to me as an active Realtor in Marin County they don’t really mean all that much. Every home is different, and every situation is different. When you put a house on the market you need to take into account all the current listings and sales that are comparable in the neighborhood, and every neighborhood dynamic is different. Since we’ve seen an inventory buildup this fall, it makes pricing and presentation all the more important.
Anyone coming on the market now, in early October, is watching the clock as the fall season is already beginning to wind down. More so than any other time of year you need to get the pricing right, because there is very little time to execute a price reduction strategy before the holidays. Two weeks from now we’ll be past the middle of October, the weather should start to cool down, and there will be fewer buyers looking for houses. Between Thanksgiving and New Years Day we will see the lowest volume of sales for the year. If you are going to sell your house in 2024, right now is your last, best chance to get your highest price.
*** Thank you for reading my blog! If you or any of your friends and family ever have any real estate questions, please feel free to contact me at andyfalk2112@yahoo.com or 415-250-8025. I’m always happy to help!